Reprinted from BBC Caribbean link Dramatic new projections for global warming have raised fears of the severe consequences for low-lying areas of the world, including in the Caribbean. The results from computer modelling used by the British Met Office and released this week at a conference in Oxford suggest that a potentially devastating rise of four degrees celsius in the global temperature could happen sooner than expected this century – within the lifetimes of many people alive today. Dr Richard Betts of the Hadley Centre told the BBC that the results show that under a high carbon emission scenario "our best guess is that a four-degree increase would take place in the 2070s. But a plausible worst case scenario is that we could get it by 2060." A four-degree temperature rise would increase the chances of significant sea level rises by the end of this century. Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, from the Potsdam Institute, warned that such an increase would result in sea level rises of between 1 metre and 1.3 metres by 2100 compared to 1990 levels. At risk **** According to the World Bank, the Bahamas, Suriname, Guyana, Belize and Jamaica are among the countries in the Americas region most vulnerable to a one-metre increase. In Guyana for example, about 90 per cent of the population lives on the coastal belt which is 1.4 metres below sea level. "The crux of the sea level issue is that the sea starts rising very slowly," Professor Rahmstorf told the BBC. "But once it starts, it is virtually unstoppable. "Our best hope is that the rate of acceleration slows down. But that’s not very reassuring." Scientists say that the likelihood that sea level rises happen slowly over several decades makes it possible to prepare for them. For example, a recent in-depth study of Guyana by Swiss Re and Mckinseys called the ‘Economics of Climate Adaptation’ concluded that "maintaining sea wall protection…is already a critical concern, given the possible impacts of seal level rise – however these impacts are projected to occur over the next 100 years." Guyana's GDP loss **** However, the study warned that much sooner than that (by 2030) global warming could cause Guyana to lose annually between 12 and 19 per cent of GDP (US$1.1 to 1.3bn), mostly due to the increased risk of flooding. Experts say that for some Caribbean states, it is the combination of sea surges, an increase in the intensity of hurricanes due to warmer seas, and minor sea level rise that will cause the more immediate problems. The leaders of the world's small island states are demanding that a new international climate change agreement guarantees their countries' livelihood by ensuring that global warming be kept below 1.5 centigrade. Grenada's Prime Minister Tillman Thomas, who is chairman of the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS), said that urgent action was needed. "Small island developing state survival is time bound. "Any agreement beyond 1.5 degrees celsius will seriously threaten our survival." However, Professor Rahmstorf points out that "even with a 1.5 degree temperature increase, it is very likely we could easily get a two-metre sea level rise over the coming centuries." Ghost states **** Scientists at the Oxford conference warned that rising sea levels could cause some small island states like Tuvalu and the Maldives eventually to become "virtual" or "ghost" states as a way of surviving the disappearance of their land. Dr Francois Gemenne from the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations in Paris said a state might continue to exist with a seat at the United Nations, with a government in exile trying to keep the idea and the culture of a nation alive. The conference also discussed the increased risk to the Amazon as a result of a 4 celsius global warming. Dr Betts from the Hadley Centre suggested that under a high-emission scenario, parts of the Amazon, and particularly the north-eastern corner, could suffer the highest temperature rise in the Americas by as much as 10 degrees celsius. The Hadley Centre model also suggests 20 per cent reductions in rainfall across Central America by the end of the century under the same scenario. Since the late 1990s, greenhouse gas emissions have increased at close to the most extreme scenarios projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, many at the conference were keen to stress that the future does not have to be a doomsday scenario. "If we get big cuts in greenhouse emissions soon," Dr Betts told the BBC, "we can still avoid the worst consequences."