ST. GEORGE ‘S, Grenada: The island’s political season is expected to enter a new phase this weekend with the expected announcement of a date for general elections on Sunday.

The speculation is for a poll in the latter half of November.

The general elections to chose the 15 members of the country’s parliament is not expected to be a walkover for the incumbent who the last time won, for the first time in history, all the seats.

Since then Michael Baptiste has broken away from the fold, and the current opposition leader has joined a revitalized Grenada United Labour Party, which does not have a realistic chance of winning more than one seat, but can influence the national result.

The fight to form the next government will be a straight contest between the ruling New National Party and the National Democratic Congress.

There are other “parties” in the race – with Dr Francis Alexis’ People’s Labour Movement perhaps the most significant of the expected also-rans.

The traditional GULP labor base helped engineered the NNP whitewash in 1999 when they supported Prime Minister Keith Mitchell when the labor party was wounded by infighting and lack of direction.

It is hardly more settled now, but its traditional supporters are angrier with the government than they have ever been.

If the shift back to labor is significant enough, its opens the door for the National Democratic Congress of Tillman Thomas.

If there is a credible showing by the GULP, there is a real possibility the NDC can form the next government. A poor showing by the laborites will ensure that Mitchell returns to power.

The margins are so slim that NNP can win as many as 12 seats most of them by margins of less than 200 votes, or can lose as many as nine by those same margins.

It is still a campaign of many moving parts, and the race is yet to be decided, which makes the expected final four weeks the most crucial in any election campaign in the nation’s history.

Some believe that the NNP has gained some momentum in the last two weeks, but if the electorate gets excited enough it can be to the benefit of NDC.

Other than a good GULP showing, the NDC can only pull it off if it can put together an effective organization to get out the vote.

The mood is still decidedly anti-government, but the danger is that some people’s anger might manifest itself by not showing up at the polls – which helps the incumbent.

In the last few weeks NNP has been the most visible, a campaign bolstered by having the most resources, though far short of the 8 million dollars it spent on the last one.

But the party always knew it had to step up a gear.

A few weeks ago, NNP’s own pollster reported that it is in mortal danger of losing six seats, and perhaps the entire elections if it does not grab something from out of the bag.

Prime Minister Mitchell responded by going on the attack against professionals including lawyers and doctors, most of whom were leading the revolt against him.

Even among his targeted audience, the tone of the attack received negative ratings and he was forced to back-off and return to “being more prime ministerial.”

Since then he has fired strategist Derek Ramsamooj – the Trinidadian who has since landed a contract with Lester Bird’s Antigua Labour Party which is also fighting re-election. Mitchell has gone back to sounding themes of unity and nation building.

In a twin strategy, he has left the attacking to some of his ministers, and to Senator Einstein Louison.

Louison, maybe one of the shrewdest political strategists in Mitchell’s camp has been sidelined for most of the last two years. Without his service and that of the Jamaican strategist Joan Webley, one of the architects of the 1999 triumph, the NNP’s campaign had wondered into a ‘directionlessness’ until recently.

A few weeks ago the NNP leader swallowed his pride held a kiss-and-make-up session with Louison, begging him to play a more prominent role in the campaign.

Within the last two weeks Louison, unlike most of the leading NNP figures has maintain his street credibility, has made belated appearances on the party’s platform.

Understanding the message of the street, Louison has stayed clear of defending the party’s record or endorsing the leadership style of Mitchell. Instead he has limited his stumpings to attacks on the perceived role of some influential NDC members in the political confusion of October 1983, especially the movement’s senior executive member Nazim Burke.

Burke was named Finance Minister, following the resignation of Bernard Coard, days before Maurice Bishop was killed. But he never took office. NNP has cleverly sought to link him to the hated Revolutionary Military Council that took over following the death of Bishop, even though he as also not a member. Louison himself, a one-time senior military person during the Maurice Bishop era has a personal score to settle with Burke. The two never got along as members of the then New Jewel Movement.

The NNP is seeking to make the October 1983 political confusion, the anniversary of which is being observed this weekend, the central issue of the campaign, as it fends fend off its vulnerable areas of corruption and the cost of living.

It is still not clear how effective that campaign has been, and how it counters against a strong current for change felt especially among middle class Grenadians and professionals.

IMPORTANT FACTORS:

Corruption: Some surveys have shown the corruption is a major concern among many Grenadians – and it is the incumbent’s most vulnerable area. Even among people inclined to vote for the New National party acknowledge that there has been “a level of corruption.”

“The type of corruption that has taken place here in the last few years made what Eric Gairy did look as a Sunday school joke,” one trade unionist recently said.

The ghost of October 83: Many Grenadians over the age of 30 are still strongly emotionally tied to the events if 1983 which resulted in the killing of Maurice Bishop and the demise of the Grenada revolution. It is NDC’s most vulnerable area since NNP has sought to link key members to the wrong side of the events.

Cost of living: Grenadians are fretting and concerned about the cost of living, some aspects of which are done to international factors, but nonetheless is seen as a problem created by the ruling New National Party.

Leadership: A concern to Grenadians it is a two-edged sword for both Mitchell and Thomas. Mitchell is seen as decisive and in control of his party, but the one-man dictatorial syndrome can also hurt him. Thomas is seen as too timid and lacking flamboyance, but can be help by the consensus builder brush.

Upset sectors: Key among them is the trade union movement. The Trade Union Council for only the second time in Grenada’;s history is openly campaign for its members to revolt against the government. They have asked workers to vote for any party that will repeal the Labour Amendment Act – which is all the opposition parties. But TUC’s preferred choice is NDC. Other sectors such as hucksters and bus drivers and farmers are also upset by government policies, as well as the lower ranks of the Grenada Police Force.

CRUCIAL RACES

St Andrew’s South West: A tight three way race between incumbent Michael Baptiste of the GULP, NNP’s Yolande Joseph and NDC’s Osbert Charles.

Three months ago Baptiste looked as an also-ran, bent on losing the seat. The came his arrest on fraud charges and the people have rallied around him as a victim. Now he is in the money and the man to beat.

Joseph has the best organization behind her and putting out the most resources.

There is good sympathy for the NDC but Charles is running a lousy campaign lacking inspiration and drive.

St George’s South: A three-woman contest featuring NNP’s Ann Antoine, NDC’s Glennis Roberts and GULP’s leader Gloria Payne Banfield. A lot of factors are at play here, but in the end the one with the best organization and campaign machinery may win.

Carriacou: Pits the NDC’s deputy leader George Prime against the NNP’s ‘wannabe’ leader Elvin Nimrod. Prime has a higher personal rating and is a “natural” in the constituency, but Nimrod is spending a lot of retain one of the many incumbent’s danger seats.

St. Mark’s: Most people think it is a sure seat for the New National Party. But there are some interesting figures coming it which shows that if the GUL candidate can get anything over 300 votes, the NDC’s Osbert James can slip through in an interesting finish. NNP’s Clarice Modeste is still the favorite but it is not as secure as the hype will make you believe.

St Patrick’s East: Two years ago the incumbent Adrian Mitchell as one of three or four NNP unbeateable’s. Not so now. He is in with a run for his money. In one of the few areas it has happened, NDC has had a more effective organization there and the campaign management has been quiet but effective. In desperate come-from-behind action Mitchell has sought to recapture lost ground in the last three weeks, but he is still in danger.

Reynold Benjamin runs for GULP here. If he makes an impact in River Sallee it will hurt Mitchell even more.

St George’s North East: A high stakes seat pits NNP’s Augustine John, the reluctant politician against NDC’s Nazim Burke, one of the most talented politicians in the entire campaign. He is genuinely feared by the NNP which has committed to putting all the resources to ensure he does not make it to parliament. Burke is now the favorite, but he should prepare for the backlash.


SOURCE: CARIBUPDATE.COM