THE LEADERS of the four major parties here square off in a nationally televised debate at 7:30 pm local time – the only one of its kind before next week Thursday’s general elections.

While it may turn out to be a useful punctuation of the campaign, it is hardly to be clear sentence.

Whatever happens tonight, the incumbent New National Party and the National Democratic Congress are expected to dominate the last few days of the campaign.

NNP’s leader Dr Keith Mitchell and NDC’s Tillman Thomas are among the four in the debate.

The other are Dr Francis Alexis of the People’s Labor Movement and Gloria Payne-Banfield.

While Mitchell and Thomas’ party seem to lead in the popular support, tonight’s debate may just provide an adequate side plot.

Alexis is perhaps considered the most skilled debater going into the event – and he handles Mitchell will be among the most fascinating of the show.

Both doctors Alexis and Mitchell shares the same club – the mutual hatred of each other. Theirs is not just political grandstand – it is for real.

Alexis’ one hope in this general election is to emerge as a still relevant and credible leader, with his party hopeless poised to be trounced.

He has two opportunities to do it – one is star in tonight’s debate, and the other is to remain competitive in his St George’s South East seat he most likely will lose again, though some reports suggest he is doing better there that some might think.

Alexis might also take the opportunity to take a short at Thomas. The extent to which he goes will be a good indication as to NDC’s position in the race.

If in an interesting twist of fate both Mitchell and Alexis join forces in taking shot at Thomas’ rear end – it will be a tacit approval that his NDC might be nudging ahead as many here suggest.

The truth is there are many unknowns in this current election, and with the last poll done nearly a month ago, there is no clarity as to where things are at the moment. Even in the best of times, predicting election results is a hazardous business.

The lack of data coupled with the many dynamics and under-current that is this election campaign, it is been the most difficult one to call in my 20 years of covering Grenadian elections.

In a high risk strategy (which in fact tells an interesting story), Prime Minister Dr Keith Mitchell called a press conference on Monday to say, mainly by innuendo, that there was an attempt on his life the day before.

The press there was largely either friendly or inexperienced, and only Calistra Farrier of the Grenadian Voice really asked the tough questions.

It was a juicy story by all means, and if it sold well it could be a master political stroke by the incumbent Prime Minister who is finding out that this is 10 times a tougher race than the last time, when he romped home easily in 1999.

The move to paint the incident, even if it is by innuendo, as an assassination attempt somehow plotted by an opponent had to be convincing.

Judging from the comments around St George’s around on Tuesday, most people just did to seem to buy the story. If that is as widespread by any chance around the country – it will undermine the credibility of the Prime Minister’s in the last lap of a campaign. Frankly it is the sort of distraction he can do without in a tight race.

The people I have interacted with seem to think it was just the boy crying wolf.

Which brings me to the other point.

Last night NDC’s leader Tillman Thomas made a television address on GBN TV – and said by and large the right thing.

Just wondered though why it was necessary to take on the Prime Minister, when most people seemed to have dismissed the allegation anyhow – and even the police privately were laughing at the story as it unfolded.

Thomas too could have done without that distraction.


SOURCE: CARIBUPDATE.COM