If senior executive member of the Grenada United Labor Party Dr Raphael Fletcher gives way, it could set up an intriguing contest for the South St. George's seat in general elections widely expected here this year.

Dr. Fletcher ran and lost the seat on a GULP ticket in the 1999 general election -- one of the many victims of the New National Party whitewash.

GULP sources say he is still basically interested in contesting the seat again, but are suggesting that the favorite to contest there for the party will be Gloria Payne-Banfield, who also sees it as her preferred constituency.

Payne-Banfield is not only wrestling with Dr. Fletcher for the South St. George seat, but the party leadership as well at a "unity" convention this month.

If Payne-Banfield gets her way, it will set up an all-woman contest in the crucial South Seat once held by former Prime Minister Sir Eric Gairy, but which since the fall of the 1979-83 revolution has also voted in an anti-GULP candidate each time.

The incumbent New National Party has already identified social worker Ann Antoine to contest the seat, and the considered main opposition National Democratic Congress is said to be confident of running Glenis Roberts, a technocrat with a foreign agency here who has also made her mark as a national netball administrator.

Antoine replaces incumbent Mark Isaac as the NNP candidate.

Isaac is not returning to contest the seat -- his 'retirement' forced by what some think has been his poor treatment in the Keith Mitchell administration.

Fired two years ago as Foreign Minister, Isaac has been a non-Cabinet sitting Junior Minister for Information.

His departure, many pundits here believe, has left the contest for the South St. George seat wide open.

The opposition is also considered to be given another extra opportunity when NNP identified Antoine as his replacement, bypassing Junior Health Minister Richard McPhail and party Public Relations Officer Terrence Forrester, who had both fancied themselves to contest the seat.

Many here believe Isaac would have been a winner again in a bruising battle, but his absence makes an NNP victory uncertain.

On the record Isaac has promised to actively campaign for his NNP successor, but some doubt that he would put a lot of heart into Antoine's bid.

Antoine, a principal of the NewLife Organization (NEWLO) youth skills training center in rural St John's, is little-known in the South St. George's constituency outside of the many church-related activities she participates in in the Grand Anse area.

So too is Roberts who is also an active member of the same vibrant church.

Payne-Banfield would be the best known in the field, and would be in some people's view, the most viable GULP candidate in two general elections.

Using the core GULP base as her support, and given her own personal credentials and familiarity in the area, added to some dissatisfaction with the government, Payne-Banfield "would be part of the ball game."

The leadership of the party, which key GULP organizers hope she would get this month, would only help her profile.

Payne-Banfield is a well-known former permanent secretary who served four administrations, including the current one.

Antoine, who was personally hand-picked by NNP leader Dr. Mitchell to contest the seat, is coming to the table with the most formidable party machinery behind her. Both McPhail and Forrester, who party sources say were bitterly disappointed with being overlooked, are now key to the party's mobilization in the area.

NDC's organization in the area is considered to be improving, though still basically weak, and Roberts, inspite of all the internal party excitement about her candidature, is also still an uncertain starter. And like Antoine, a political novice.

"Both Antoine and Roberts would have to depend on their party organization to pull them through even more than Payne-Banfield who starts with the advantage of better name recognition," is how one analyst put it here recently.

NNP has the potential to raise more money for the contest in the area, not only on the mere strength of being the incumbent party, but because it has specifically courted key elements of the affluent Lance Aux Epines community. Money, it is believed, will be a key element to the campaign here.

"There are five key people in the area which the Prime Minister meets with and listen to, and they would be key to the fund raising," a business executive of the area told CARIBUPDATE.

That development had influenced opposition leader Michael Baptiste to take a jibe at the NNP administration during the recent budget debate, dubbing it "the Lance Aux Epines government", something he hoped would resonate negatively in the rural areas.

Prime Minister Mitchell has however repeatedly said in public statements that the fact his party won the majority of votes in that area and in rural Pearls, one of the poorest villages in Grenada, indicates the widespread appeal of the NNP.

South St. George is believed to be one of the seats shown in a recent NNP-sponsored poll to be slipping -- though recoverable.

The late 2002 poll was carried out by the Trinidadian Derek Ramsamooj, who was the only pollster in 1999 who predicted the unprecedented clean-sweep.

South St. George is a eclectic Grenadian mix in the heart of the island's tourist belt where Grenada's most affluent in Lance Aux Epines neighbors the poor Grand Anse valley.


Supplied by CARIBUPDATE.com