WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE DECAYING POLITICAL SITUATION IN GRENADA OVER THE NEXT 18 MONTHS?

Concerns are being constantly expressed by the Grenadian electorate about the recent ministerial revocation of Joseph Gilbert. My response to the concerns, there is no need for panic. Nothing dramatic or despicable will occur. The Thomas administration will coast along, the David faction will lick their wounds and during the next 18 months, Tilly will make his own decision when to visit Sir Carlyle and call it a day. The writs will be issued and Grenada will officially be in election mode. The National Democratic Congress (NDC) will ask for a second term while the New National Party (NNP) will outline its national rescue plan to save the Nation by asking the electorate for a mandate. Given trends and disappointments with the NDC, Grenadians are inclined to support implementation of the rescue plan.

In spite of Thomas’s leadership weakness and in decisive behaviour at times, credit should be given to him for boxing in the Revolutionary Military Council (RMC) members or otherwise commonly described as “the David Faction”. They entered into a marriage of convenience agreement with the NDC following rejection of their marriage proposal to the NNP. While much is never heard about this proposal, this information is extremely credible and will be written in the future history records of Grenada or into the political memoirs of a retired politician.

As the current situation exists, there are 15 seats in Grenada’s lower House of Parliament. The parliamentary count indicates that the NNP controls four (4) seats while the NDC control eleven (11) of the seats thus giving them a comfortable majority to lead the government.

Based on credible information from various sources within the government and General Council of the NDC, there is convincing evidence that the Cabinet of the Thomas government which is made up of senators and elected members are divided into two factions. One faction supports the Thomas vision while the other faction supports the David vision. From time immemorial, cabinet deliberations have always been centred on the veil of secrecy. Although the veil of secrecy exist in the Thomas cabinet, from time to cabinet leaks are encountered and this is why it became widely known that two factions exist within the Cabinet.

While it is important to carefully analyse any cabinet leaks that may come into our possession, it is reasonably safe to confirm that there are tensions in the Thomas Cabinet which have led to ministerial realignment of portfolios and revocation of appointments. While the cabinet divisions are of great interest, there ought to be focus on how the NDC parliamentary majority manoeuvre themselves in the lower house.

The recent firing of Gilbert from the Thomas Cabinet is of great interest to political observers in Grenada and the overseas Grenadian Diaspora. Whatever reasons precipitated the Prime Minister’s action, it must be made clear that Thomas has the prerogative for recommending the appointment and removal of cabinet members by the Governor General.

Gilbert’s removal from cabinet which has been described as a “witch-hunt” should not give fear to the electorate of government. The government will continue to coast along and no mass resignations are anticipated. Certainly, there will be an attempt of a palace coup sometime in February but Tilly will survive and head to the Governor’s General residence to advice that Parliament be dissolved.

The interesting spectre of this situation is that the David faction will not be able to convince the Opposition to pursue the route of a parliamentary majority. In addition, Speaker McGuire who is known for his hostility to the Opposition Leader will find ways of subverting Mitchell from assuming the mantle of government.

Given current indicators, the Grenadian electorate has no appetite for the formation of a new party in Grenada. Therefore, the David faction cannot ignore the electorate low appetite for such an initiative. Therefore, it is my firm belief that the David faction will steer the coast by hanging in there and not annoying Tilly any further.

Finally, it is very clear that both feuding factions will have a very difficult time in regaining the confidence of the electorate given the declining social and economic situation in Grenada. The David faction is boxed in, they are not re-electable and the NNP is unlikely to give refuge to those disgruntled Thomas detractors. It is sad, however, there are times in politics when things become gloomed and this is the current situation facing the David faction.

The NNP need to consider quality, commitment, team-playing and integrity if and when it accepts selected political refugees or disenchanted party activists.

Julius Gabriel