CATEGORY:HURRICANE PREDICTIONS
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By Wallave J.A
Inside Grenada correspondent
Sunday December 10,2006


ACCORDING TO A December 8, 2006 article written my Alex Morales and Courtney Dentch for Bloomberg - based in the USA - the 2007 Hurricane Season will be more active than average, with at least 14 storms developing in the Atlantic Basin.

Researchers from Colorado State University, meteorologists Phillip Klotzbach and William Grey, believe that warmer oceans will cause a more active hurricane season from June to November 2007. According to Grey “…we believe that the Atlantic Basin is in an active hurricane cycle.” He believes that this cycle will last about two decades before it enters a calmer period.

Grey and Klotzbatch, whose predictions are taken very seriously by governments and insurers, anticipate that 7 of the 14 tropical storms that are expected next year will attain hurricane strength and three of them will become major hurricanes – above category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The 2006 hurricane season has been below-average. This year, nine systems reached tropical strength and five became hurricanes, two of which could be categorized as being major hurricanes (more that 111 mph). According to Mark Saunders, a Tropical Storm Risk scientist, “The below-average… season was due to the presence of considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August and September, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and therefore tropical-storm development, and to the unexpected onset of El Nino conditions from mid-September,''

This should be interesting news for Caribbean people, especially Grenadians, many of whom can still vividly recollect the horrible nightmares they experienced under Hurricane Ivan in September of 2004 and again by Hurricane Emily in July 2005. The country is still trapped in recovery mode and residents are hoping that another hurricane does not hit the country any time soon, but as a precaution, the majority of Grenadians have rebuilt or done repairs to their homes to make them more hurricane-resistant. Many houses in the country now have basements, where families can go to in case another storm impacts the island.